Streaks: how often they happen, and why the next spin doesn’t care
The exact chance of a run of one colour at roulette in the spins you play. Long runs are common over an evening; none of them changes the colour of the next spin.
Your wheel and your time
Pick the wheel, the run you have in mind and how long you play. The number of spins is the pace times the hours.
Double-zero wheel · runs of the same colour · 3 hours · An example pace: 38 spins an hour.
Chance of at least one run of 8 or more of the same colour in 3 hours (114 spins): 25%, in about 1 session of every 4.
The longest run of the same colour in 114 spins: in half of such sessions it is 6 or longer; in 8 of 10 it is between 5 and 9.
After 8 reds in a row, the next spin is red 18 times in 38 (47.37%), exactly as after any other spin. A run is common; it does not make the next colour any more or less likely.
| A run of the same colour of | Happens at least once in 114 spins |
|---|---|
| 5 or more | 96%in all but 1 of every 24 sessions |
| 6 or more | 75%in about 8 of 10 sessions |
| 7 or more | 47%in about 5 of 10 sessions |
| 8 or more | 25%in about 1 session of every 4 |
| 9 or more | 13%in about 1 session of every 8 |
| 10 or more | 6%in about 1 session of every 16 |
| 11 or more | 3%in about 1 session of every 34 |
| 12 or more | 1%in about 1 session of every 72 |
| 13 or more | 0.7%in about 1 session of every 153 |
Worked out exactly, spin by spin, from the pockets of the wheel (see “Show the model”): how it’s worked out.
Why the next spin doesn’t care
A long run feels as if it must end, and a colour that has not come up for a while feels due. Neither is true: the wheel has no memory, and each spin is independent of every spin before it.
Each spin is independent
But in reality, a past spin won’t influence the outcome of a future spin.
Dice have no memory which makes every roll independent of the last.
Losing 10 times in a row doesn’t make it more likely that you’ll win on the 11th try.
Both things hold at once. Over 114 spins, a run of six or more of one colour happens in 75% of sessions on a double-zero wheel. The chance that the next spin continues a run you are watching is still 18 in 38 for red on a double-zero wheel (18 in 37 on a single-zero one), the same as for any other spin.
Waiting for a run and then betting the other way changes nothing: every bet keeps the same house edge. What doubling after a loss does: How long will it last?
Wheels at casinos we list
The wheel sets the chance of red on every spin. These casinos name their wheel on their own website.
| Casino | Wheel, as the casino names it | Red on one spin |
|---|---|---|
| Caesars Windsor | Double zero Source
Caesars Windsor: roulette wheel choosing from 1 to 36, with a 0 and 00 caesars.com/caesars-windsor/casino · checked | 18 in 38 |
| Cascades Casino North Bay | Double zero Source
Cascades Casino North Bay: roulette wheel • Double Zero Roulette | 18 in 38 |
| Elements Casino Flamboro | Double zero Source
Elements Casino Flamboro: roulette wheel Double Zero Roulette | 18 in 38 |
| Elements Casino Flamboro | Triple zero Source
Elements Casino Flamboro: roulette wheel Triple Zero Roulette | 18 in 39 |
| Fallsview Casino Resort | Double zero Source
Fallsview Casino Resort: roulette wheel Double Zero Table | 18 in 38 |
| Fallsview Casino Resort | Single zero Source
Fallsview Casino Resort: roulette wheel Blackjack, baccarat, single zero roulette and craps are now offered in the Fallsview Privé fallsviewcasinoresort.com/playing/table-games.html · checked | 18 in 37 |
| Fallsview Casino Resort | Triple zero Source
Fallsview Casino Resort: roulette wheel Triple Zero Table | 18 in 39 |
| McPhillips Station Casinoelectronic terminals | Double zero Source
McPhillips Station Casino: roulette wheel MINISTAR ROULETTE 00 STADIUM GAMING | 18 in 38 |
| Parq Casino | Double zero | 18 in 38 |
| South Beach Casino & Resort | Single zero Source
South Beach Casino & Resort: roulette wheel table games featuring single-zero roulette southbeachcasino.ca/gaming · checked | 18 in 37 |
Only casinos whose own page names the wheel in words (“Double Zero”, “single-zero”, “0 and 00”). A game name such as “American Roulette” is not counted as a wheel stated.
Show the model
One spin of each wheel: how many pockets are red, black and green.
| Wheel | Red, and black | Green (zeros) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double zero38 pockets | 18 of 3847.37% each | 2 of 385.26% | Source
Roulette, double zero: pockets Worked out: red and black each win on 18 of 38 pockets; the other 2 are green. The Roulette wheel consists of numbers 1-36, alternately coloured red and black, plus 0 and 00 which are green. … Red is no longer half of all squares, it’s now 18 out of 38 squares, so when you bet on red (or almost ANY bet on the layout), the house advantage is 2/38, or 5.26% GameSense by AGLC · Roulette · read |
| Single zero37 pockets | 18 of 3748.65% each | 1 of 372.70% | Source
Roulette, single zero: pockets Worked out: red and black each win on 18 of 37 pockets; the other 1 are green. The main distinction to European Roulette is that the table layout (and the corresponding wheel slots) only feature a single zero, while American Roulette features a double zero. … a 1 in 37 chance, compared to 1 in 38 for the American version. The Roulette wheel consists of numbers 1-36, alternately coloured red and black, plus 0 and 00 which are green. … Red or Black: pays 1 to 1 GameSense by AGLC · Roulette · read |
| Triple zero39 pockets | 18 of 3946.15% each | 3 of 397.69% | Source
Roulette, triple zero: pockets Worked out: red and black each win on 18 of 39 pockets; the other 3 are green. The Roulette wheel consists of numbers 1-36, alternately coloured red and black, plus 0 and 00 which are green. … Red or Black: pays 1 to 1 GameSense by AGLC · Roulette · read |
How it’s worked out
Exact, spin by spin. The page tracks the length of the current run after every spin: a spin of the same colour adds one, the other colour starts a new run of one, a green pocket ends the run. The chance of reaching the run length you picked at least once is added up over every possible sequence of spins. No simulation and no shortcut formula.
A check you can do by hand. For 100 tosses of a fair coin, the chance of four heads in a row somewhere is 97.27%: likely, not certain.
Assumptions. A fair wheel, every spin independent, the pace times the hours rounded to whole spins. “Runs of the same colour” counts red runs and black runs; “red only” counts red runs.
Pace. The spins an hour are an example pace, not a measured one: none of the Canadian documents we read publishes how many spins a wheel makes in an hour (more on How long will it last?). Electronic terminals keep their own pace.
Precision. Chances are rounded to whole percents; below 1% to one figure.
If it stops being fun
If gambling stops being entertainment, help is available. 19+ in most of Canada; 18+ in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec.
If you are thinking about suicide, call or text 9-8-8
All ways to reach a helpline Set a money and time limit: Game plan Responsible gaming
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